1/1/2024 0 Comments Swish analytics mlbThis helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in. Ceiling Optimization: Prioritizes players with the highest variability to maximize your lineup's point ceiling for Tournaments. A HR value of 3.7 indicates a 3. History (Model): A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). Standard Optimization: Construct a lineup with the highest projected point total, regardless of risk. Model (Probabilities): The probabilities for each outcome according to the matchup model. History (Actuals): The actual outcomes recorded in the past 3 years for the hitter/pitcher combination. A HR value of '3.7' indicates a 3.7% chance of hitting a HR vs the starting pitcher in today's park. Model (Probabilities): The probabilities for each outcome according to the matchup model. Ceiling Optimization: Prioritizes players with the highest variability to maximize your lineups point ceiling for Tournaments. RC (runs created) is a combination of the outcomes and is meant to serve as an indicator of overall matchup quality for the hitter. If a player is normally expected to hit a HR 2% of the time, a value of '50' indicates a 3% chance to hit a HR vs the starting pitcher in today's park (50% increase). % Change vs Typical: Shows the percent change vs the batter's typical expectations. The Matchup Model gives a probability distribution of outcomes for every batter/pitcher combination.
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